ROI – Risk Analysis –
Opportunity Cost, Week 6 Day 2, Numbers
12-14
I tend to be more of a
realist. You may not believe that if you’ve been reading my blog, but
it’s true. Facts are facts. People tend to behave or misbehave in
certain ways. Life has a certain pattern or flow to it. And
generally if you work hard you see the results of that work.
I guess that the men
(spies) that were sent to scope out to explore Canaan were realists too.
After traveling in the desert to for a number of months they finally have their
destination in sight, Canaan, the Promised Land. God tells Moses to “Send
some men to explore the land of Canaan, which I (God) am giving to the
Israelites. Sounds like a good idea. Get the lay of the land before
you go. The former project manager in me likes this. Figure out the
potential ROI, return on investment. Do a little risk / reward
analysis.
So off go the
spies. They spend forty days exploring the land. And they return
with a mix of good news and bad news. In the plus column there’s some
great produce including grapes so good that it takes two men to carry a single
cluster. It’s flowing with milk and honey! In the minus column
there large fortified cities, lots of people, giant sized people.
Caleb tries to convince
the people, “We should go up and take possession of the land, for we can
certainly do it.” That Caleb is quite the motivational speaker. The
other spies were realists too. They vote “No”. They point out the large
fortified cities, all the people that live there, and how the current inhabitants
are stronger that the Israelites and as big as giants. They don’t see much opportunity for a return
on investment and a high risk if they enter the Promised Land.
And
so, once again the people grumble against Moses and Aaron. Moses, Aaron, Joshua and Caleb do their best
to convince the Israelites. And for
their efforts the Israelites decide that they want choose a new leader and go
back to Egypt, again. They even talk
about stoning Moses, Aaron, Joshua and Caleb.
Once again they’ve got a bad case of Godzheimer’s. They forgot what God has done. They forgot how God had delivered them. They’ve even forgotten what it was like to be
slave back in Egypt. Godzheimer’s.
Once
again God is angry at the people. And
once again Moses pleads for the people.
And once again God forgives them.
But their rebellion comes with a great price. They could have entered the Promised
Land. They could have left the desert
behind. But instead, because of their
rebellion, none of men who had seen the signs that God had performed in Egypt
and the desert will get to enter the Promised Land. Only Caleb who argued to follow God’s command
will get to enter the Promised Land.
There’s
another business concept that can apply here.
ROI and risk analysis are good.
Then there’s opportunity cost. Opportunity
cost is the value of what you didn’t do.
You have a choice of two investments.
You pick investment A. It turns
out that investment B would have yielded a 100% percent profit. But choosing A you missed out on the 100%
profit you would have had if you had picked B.
But you can’t do both. Basically
you try to look at all your choices and pick the one that will give the best
result. But to do that you have to guess
at what gain your other choices would realized.
So,
what was the opportunity cost of not entering the Promised Land? Don’t know the dollar value, but basically it
was forty years of living in the Promised Land.
And their ROI for going against God’s directions was forty years in the
desert. Forty years of Promised Land
versus forty years of desert. They chose
poorly. Very poorly. And they lost the opportunity to enter the
Promised Land.
The
cost of the choices that we make in our Christian lives can be hard to
measure. I feel God prompting me to
share my faith with another, but I don’t do it.
Life just seems to go on, no harm, no foul. But what about the opportunity cost. Perhaps the person has forty years of life
without God. Hey, that’s doesn’t sound
very fair. Why should they suffer for my
lack of vision, my lack of obedience? I
feel God calling me to serve in some way, but it’s not really what I want to
do. Do I miss out in the growth of my
faith and relationship with God because of my choice? Do others miss out because of my reluctance
to serve?
We want
the freedom to say “no” along with freedom from the consequences. As Israel has just found out, followers of
God, especially reluctant followers of God, bear a heavy burden in terms of
opportunity costs. Adventures with God
not experienced. The joy of fellowship
with others remains unknown. Perhaps even
welcoming a new sister or brother into the Kingdom of God, postponed, perhaps
never even happening.
Some
of you might be saying, “God wouldn’t let others miss out on His kingdom just
because I won’t obey when He called me to share.” But that strikes me as a weird sort of logic
that says I have free will to do whatever I want, but someone else will be
forced to “pick up the slack” of my choice to not serve. We relish the times when we can see God use
us to minister to or bless others. But
it never occurs to us ask, if we choose not to serve is that same potential ministry
and blessing lost?
I
would guess that those who were born during the forty years of Israel’s
wandering in the desert would much rather have been born in the Promised
Land. But they were not. They were born in the wanderings of the
desert. Hardly fair. How could God be so mean? But time and time again the Bible tells us
that the sins of the parents visit their children. Why should God punish them? But it’s not God punishing them. It’s simply the children having to live with
the choices of their parents. And only
God can break that cycle. He doesn’t
cause it. But can redeem us and save us
from it.
So,
what’s it gonna be, do what God wants you to do today or miss out on the
blessings the come from entering the Promised Land in exchange for a lengthy
stroll in the desert?
God,
I want to be able to choose where, when and how I serve You. And I know that when I choose You I can often
see how the result of Your working in their lives and my life. But It’s harder to see what happens when I
say “No”. I miss out on Your
blessings. And they miss out too. So God, give me a heat ready and willing to
serve, even when there are giants. Amen
Leonard