ROI – Risk Analysis – Opportunity Cost, Week 6 Day 2, Numbers 12-14

ROI – Risk Analysis – Opportunity Cost,  Week 6 Day 2, Numbers 12-14

I tend to be more of a realist.  You may not believe that if you’ve been reading my blog, but it’s true.  Facts are facts.  People tend to behave or misbehave in certain ways.  Life has a certain pattern or flow to it.  And generally if you work hard you see the results of that work.

I guess that the men (spies) that were sent to scope out to explore Canaan were realists too.  After traveling in the desert to for a number of months they finally have their destination in sight, Canaan, the Promised Land.  God tells Moses to “Send some men to explore the land of Canaan, which I (God) am giving to the Israelites.  Sounds like a good idea.  Get the lay of the land before you go.  The former project manager in me likes this.  Figure out the potential ROI, return on investment.  Do a little risk / reward analysis. 

So off go the spies.  They spend forty days exploring the land.  And they return with a mix of good news and bad news.  In the plus column there’s some great produce including grapes so good that it takes two men to carry a single cluster.  It’s flowing with milk and honey!  In the minus column there large fortified cities, lots of people, giant sized people. 

Caleb tries to convince the people, “We should go up and take possession of the land, for we can certainly do it.”  That Caleb is quite the motivational speaker.  The other spies were realists too. They  vote “No”.  They point out the large fortified cities, all the people that live there, and how the current inhabitants are stronger that the Israelites and as big as giants.  They don’t see much opportunity for a return on investment and a high risk if they enter the Promised Land.

And so, once again the people grumble against Moses and Aaron.  Moses, Aaron, Joshua and Caleb do their best to convince the Israelites.  And for their efforts the Israelites decide that they want choose a new leader and go back to Egypt, again.  They even talk about stoning Moses, Aaron, Joshua and Caleb.  Once again they’ve got a bad case of Godzheimer’s.  They forgot what God has done.  They forgot how God had delivered them.  They’ve even forgotten what it was like to be slave back in Egypt.  Godzheimer’s.

Once again God is angry at the people.  And once again Moses pleads for the people.  And once again God forgives them.  But their rebellion comes with a great price.  They could have entered the Promised Land.  They could have left the desert behind.  But instead, because of their rebellion, none of men who had seen the signs that God had performed in Egypt and the desert will get to enter the Promised Land.  Only Caleb who argued to follow God’s command will get to enter the Promised Land.

There’s another business concept that can apply here.  ROI and risk analysis are good.  Then there’s opportunity cost.  Opportunity cost is the value of what you didn’t do.  You have a choice of two investments.  You pick investment A.  It turns out that investment B would have yielded a 100% percent profit.  But choosing A you missed out on the 100% profit you would have had if you had picked B.  But you can’t do both.  Basically you try to look at all your choices and pick the one that will give the best result.  But to do that you have to guess at what gain your other choices would realized.

So, what was the opportunity cost of not entering the Promised Land?  Don’t know the dollar value, but basically it was forty years of living in the Promised Land.  And their ROI for going against God’s directions was forty years in the desert.  Forty years of Promised Land versus forty years of desert.  They chose poorly.  Very poorly.  And they lost the opportunity to enter the Promised Land.

The cost of the choices that we make in our Christian lives can be hard to measure.  I feel God prompting me to share my faith with another, but I don’t do it.  Life just seems to go on, no harm, no foul.  But what about the opportunity cost.  Perhaps the person has forty years of life without God.  Hey, that’s doesn’t sound very fair.  Why should they suffer for my lack of vision, my lack of obedience?  I feel God calling me to serve in some way, but it’s not really what I want to do.  Do I miss out in the growth of my faith and relationship with God because of my choice?  Do others miss out because of my reluctance to serve?

We want the freedom to say “no” along with freedom from the consequences.  As Israel has just found out, followers of God, especially reluctant followers of God, bear a heavy burden in terms of opportunity costs.  Adventures with God not experienced.  The joy of fellowship with others remains unknown.  Perhaps even welcoming a new sister or brother into the Kingdom of God, postponed, perhaps never even happening.

Some of you might be saying, “God wouldn’t let others miss out on His kingdom just because I won’t obey when He called me to share.”  But that strikes me as a weird sort of logic that says I have free will to do whatever I want, but someone else will be forced to “pick up the slack” of my choice to not serve.  We relish the times when we can see God use us to minister to or bless others.  But it never occurs to us ask, if we choose not to serve is that same potential ministry and blessing lost?

I would guess that those who were born during the forty years of Israel’s wandering in the desert would much rather have been born in the Promised Land.  But they were not.  They were born in the wanderings of the desert.  Hardly fair.  How could God be so mean?  But time and time again the Bible tells us that the sins of the parents visit their children.  Why should God punish them?  But it’s not God punishing them.  It’s simply the children having to live with the choices of their parents.  And only God can break that cycle.  He doesn’t cause it.  But can redeem us and save us from it. 

So, what’s it gonna be, do what God wants you to do today or miss out on the blessings the come from entering the Promised Land in exchange for a lengthy stroll in the desert?

God, I want to be able to choose where, when and how I serve You.  And I know that when I choose You I can often see how the result of Your working in their lives and my life.  But It’s harder to see what happens when I say “No”.  I miss out on Your blessings.  And they miss out too.  So God, give me a heat ready and willing to serve, even when there are giants.  Amen

Leonard